Based on our last report, hog carcass increased last month, weather is colder which is helpful to pork price increase.The price increases slowly this month. Live pig average price is RMB14.52/kg in November, increases 0.21% compared to last month, declines 14.24% compared to year-on-year. Carcass plant price is RMB19.73/kg, increases 0.15% compared to last month and declines 12.43% compared to same month of last year. Piglet price is RMB30.87/kg, declines 5.56% compared to last month and 25.98% compared to year-on-year. The pig-corn ratio is 8.03, declines 0.5% compared to last month and 3.21% compared to same month of last year.Corn price is RMB1.81/kg, increasing 0.56% compared to last year and declining 3.21% compared to last year.
Sow stock declines 0.05% compared to last month and 0.6% compared to same month of last year in the end of November. Live pig stock increases 0.59% compared to last month and increases 0.47% compared to same month last year. Pig let supply declines 0.07% compared to last month and increases 2.12% compared to last year. Pork price stops to increase in November. Swine farmers are reluctant to sell and expect price to increase. On the other hand, market predicts pork demand in December to increase highly. It will be difficult for slaughter houses to buy from farmers next month. Besides, weather is colder and Chinese bacon making season is coming, therefore, demand and supply will be out of balance.
Even though market expectation of next month is positive, market price of next year is still expected to be pessimistic. Based on increased demand and short supply, pork prices will increase stably next month. According to BOYAR, cow stock will decline continuously. It is difficult to feed in winter. Piglet supply will decline in December. Livestock will increase compared to November. Another reason that price of December will increase is increasing demand. Chinese bacon and enema season is coming in South of China and hog slaughtering for Chinese Spring Festival is going on in North of China. Therefore pork demand will raise in December.
