Back in Mar-Apr, it was a good season for sows to fertilize and for piglets to grow. The higher farrowing rate and survival rate lead to more market hogs in Oct. Besides, the weak prices in end of Sep and beginning of Oct push farmers to sell more hogs. As a result, in Oct, the market hog numbers increases by 3.28% month onmonth, and by 6.08% year onyear. Pork production increases by 3.28% month onmonth, and by 8.58% year onyear.
From mid Oct, the rally of hog price attracted farmers to keep the hogs. Considering these hogs will probably be marketed in Nov, we can predict the Nov hog supply will still be abundant. While on the demand side, as winter comes, the consumption in Nov would be better, which may drives up the price. There’s one uncertainty may hold the price back. If it continues that more hog farms being closed due to stricter regulations, the massive hog supply in short run could push the price down again.
